{"id":8992,"date":"2013-09-14T18:09:06","date_gmt":"2013-09-15T01:09:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.orthodoxytoday.org\/blog\/?p=8992"},"modified":"2013-09-17T18:41:33","modified_gmt":"2013-09-18T01:41:33","slug":"global-cooling-arctic-ice-sheet-size-increases-by-60-in-one-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.orthodoxytoday.org\/blog\/2013\/09\/global-cooling-arctic-ice-sheet-size-increases-by-60-in-one-year\/","title":{"rendered":"Global Cooling?: Arctic Ice Sheet Increases by 60% in One Year"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Arctic by David Rose –
\nThe earth has gained a record amount of sea ice in 2013. The Arctic has added 19,000 Manhattans of sea ice since 2012, the largest increase on record.<\/strong><\/p>\n

A chilly Arctic summer has left nearly a million more square miles (920,000 to be exact) of ocean covered with ice than at the same time last year \u2013 an increase of 60 percent<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

The rebound from 2012\u2019s record low comes six years after the BBC reported that global warming would leave the Arctic ice-free in summer by 2013.<\/p>\n

Instead, days before the annual autumn re-freeze is due to begin, an unbroken ice sheet more than half the size of Europe already stretches from the Canadian islands to Russia\u2019s northern shores. <\/p>\n

The Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific has remained blocked by pack-ice all year. More than 20 yachts that had planned to sail it have been left ice-bound and a cruise ship attempting the route was forced to turn back.<\/p>\n

\"Arctic<\/p>\n

Some eminent scientists now believe the world is heading for a period of cooling that will not end until the middle of this century \u2013 a process that would expose computer forecasts of imminent catastrophic warming as dangerously misleading.<\/p>\n

The disclosure comes 11 months after The Mail on Sunday triggered intense political and scientific debate by revealing that global warming has \u2018paused\u2019 since the beginning of 1997 \u2013 an event that the computer models used by climate experts failed to predict.<\/p>\n

In March, this newspaper further revealed that temperatures are about to drop below the level that the models forecast with \u201890 per cent certainty\u2019.<\/p>\n

The pause \u2013 which has now been accepted as real by every major climate research centre \u2013 is important, because the models\u2019 predictions of ever-increasing global temperatures have made many of the world\u2019s economies divert billions of pounds into \u2018green\u2019 measures to counter climate change.<\/p>\n

Those predictions now appear gravely flawed.<\/p>\n

THERE WON’T BE ANY ICE AT ALL! HOW THE BBC PREDICTED CHAOS IN 2007<\/strong>
\nOnly six years ago, the BBC reported that the Arctic would be ice-free in summer by 2013, citing a scientist in the US who claimed this was a \u2018conservative\u2019 forecast. Perhaps it was their confidence that led more than 20 yachts to try to sail the Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific this summer. As of last week, all these vessels were stuck in the ice, some at the eastern end of the passage in Prince Regent Inlet, others further west at Cape Bathurst.<\/p>\n

Shipping experts said the only way these vessels were likely to be freed was by the icebreakers of the Canadian coastguard. According to the official Canadian government website, the Northwest Passage has remained ice-bound and impassable all summer.
\nThe BBC\u2019s 2007 report quoted scientist Professor Wieslaw Maslowski, who based his views on super-computer models and the fact that \u2018we use a high-resolution regional model for the Arctic Ocean and sea ice\u2019.<\/p>\n

He was confident his results were \u2018much more realistic\u2019 than other projections, which \u2018underestimate the amount of heat delivered to the sea ice\u2019. Also quoted was Cambridge University expert<\/p>\n

Professor Peter Wadhams. He backed Professor Maslowski, saying his model was \u2018more efficient\u2019 than others because it \u2018takes account of processes that happen internally in the ice\u2019.<\/p>\n

He added: \u2018This is not a cycle; not just a fluctuation. In the end, it will all just melt away quite suddenly.\u2019
\n\"Prediction<\/p>\n

The continuing furore caused by The Mail on Sunday\u2019s revelations \u2013 which will now be amplified by the return of the Arctic ice sheet \u2013 has forced the UN\u2019s climate change body to hold a crisis meeting.<\/p>\n

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was due in October to start publishing its Fifth Assessment Report \u2013 a huge three-volume study issued every six or seven years. It will now hold a pre-summit in Stockholm later this month.<\/p>\n

Leaked documents show that governments which support and finance the IPCC are demanding more than 1,500 changes to the report\u2019s \u2018summary for policymakers\u2019. They say its current draft does not properly explain the pause.<\/p>\n

At the heart of the row lie two questions: the extent to which temperatures will rise with carbon dioxide levels, as well as how much of the warming over the past 150 years \u2013 so far, just 0.8C \u2013 is down to human greenhouse gas emissions and how much is due to natural variability.<\/p>\n

In its draft report, the IPCC says it is \u201895 per cent confident\u2019 that global warming has been caused by humans \u2013 up from 90 per cent in 2007.<\/p>\n

This claim is already hotly disputed. US climate expert Professor Judith Curry said last night: \u2018In fact, the uncertainty is getting bigger. It\u2019s now clear the models are way too sensitive to carbon dioxide. I cannot see any basis for the IPCC increasing its confidence level.\u2019<\/p>\n

She pointed to long-term cycles in ocean temperature, which have a huge influence on climate and suggest the world may be approaching a period similar to that from 1965 to 1975, when there was a clear cooling trend. This led some scientists at the time to forecast an imminent ice age.<\/p>\n

Professor Anastasios Tsonis, of the University of Wisconsin, was one of the first to investigate the ocean cycles. He said: \u2018We are already in a cooling trend, which I think will continue for the next 15 years at least. There is no doubt the warming of the 1980s and 1990s has stopped.<\/p>\n

\"NASA<\/a>
Then – NASA satellite images showing the spread of Arctic sea ice – August 27, 2012.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"NASA<\/a>
Now – NASA satellite images showing the spread of Arctic sea ice – August 15, 2013.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u2018The IPCC claims its models show a pause of 15 years can be expected. But that means that after only a very few years more, they will have to admit they are wrong.\u2019<\/p>\n

Others are more cautious. Dr Ed Hawkins, of Reading University, drew the graph published by The Mail on Sunday in March showing how far world temperatures have diverged from computer predictions. He admitted the cycles may have caused some of the recorded warming, but insisted that natural variability alone could not explain all of the temperature rise over the past 150 years.<\/p>\n

Nonetheless, the belief that summer Arctic ice is about to disappear remains an IPCC tenet, frequently flung in the face of critics who point to the pause.<\/p>\n

Yet there is mounting evidence that Arctic ice levels are cyclical. Data uncovered by climate historians show that there was a massive melt in the 1920s and 1930s, followed by intense re-freezes that ended only in 1979 \u2013 the year the IPCC says that shrinking began.<\/p>\n

Professor Curry said the ice\u2019s behaviour over the next five years would be crucial, both for understanding the climate and for future policy. \u2018Arctic sea ice is the indicator to watch,\u2019 she said.<\/p>\n

HT : Daily Mail UK<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

by David Rose – The earth has gained a record amount of sea ice in 2013. The Arctic has added 19,000 Manhattans of sea ice since 2012, the largest increase on record. A chilly Arctic summer has left nearly a million more square miles (920,000 to be exact) of ocean covered with ice than at … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":497,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"generate_page_header":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[111,75,51],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8992","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-global-cooling","category-global-warming","category-science"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.orthodoxytoday.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8992","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.orthodoxytoday.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.orthodoxytoday.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.orthodoxytoday.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/497"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.orthodoxytoday.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8992"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.orthodoxytoday.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8992\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.orthodoxytoday.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8992"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.orthodoxytoday.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8992"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.orthodoxytoday.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8992"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}