For the second year in a row forecasters are wrong on predicting the weather. The 2007 Hurricane season may rank as most ‘inactive’ in 30 years.

Florida State University | Ryan N. Maue | Oct. 29, 2007

Unless a dramatic and historical flurry of activity occurs in the next 9 weeks, 2007 will rank as a historically inactive TC year for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole. During the past 30 years, only 1977, 1981, and 1983 have had less activity to date. For the period of June 1 – TODAY, only 1977 has experienced LESS tropical cyclone activity than 2007. For the North Atlantic basin, Tropical Storm Noel is currently too weak to impact any of these results.

However, one should always be prepared for late-season developments since hurricane season ends on November 30.

The North Atlantic hurricane season is currently nearly 30% below normal in terms of a well-known activity metric called ACE. While the number of named storms is above normal, their integrated intensity has not matched the hyper-active expectations of many seasonal forecasters (e.g. NOAA 140-200% above median). The Eastern Pacific off the western coast of Mexico is also experiencing record inactivity.

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