(Ventura, CA) - In May of this year, the presidential contest between George W. Bush and John Kerry was a toss-up. Surveys by The Barna Group in May 2004 indicated that among registered voters the race was a 43%-43% dead heat. At that time President Bush held a significant but tiny 49% to 44% lead among people likely to vote in November.
A new survey shows that among likely voters the President's lead has grown from a five-point margin to eight points (48% versus 40%). However, one of the major changes since May is that more likely voters are currently undecided as to whom they will vote for, now comprising 10% of the likely voters, up from just 2% in May. While President Bush's lead is statistically significant, there are enough undecided voters and "leaners" -- i.e., another 8% of likely voters who have a candidate preference at this time but are not "certain" they will support that candidate in November -- that the election remains up for grabs.
Read the entire article on the Barna Group website.